{
  "description": "Machine-readable snapshot of the public US debt risk dashboard.",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-14T21:19:43Z",
  "issues": [],
  "latest_json_url": "https://debt.l0g.fr/latest.json",
  "name": "Debt Risk Radar",
  "public_url": "https://debt.l0g.fr/",
  "refresh": {
    "auto_refresh_seconds": 900,
    "source_ttl_seconds": {
      "institutional": 86400,
      "market": 21600
    }
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "scope": {
    "country": "USA",
    "focus": "US sovereign debt, fiscal projections, private credit, liquidity and market stress.",
    "market_data": "FRED and Massive Market Data are used when server-side keys are configured."
  },
  "score": {
    "buckets": [
      {
        "bucket": "cbo_projection",
        "included_in_overall": false,
        "label": "CBO projections",
        "metrics": 4,
        "score": 85.89828165107457,
        "score_role": "structural",
        "status": "Stress",
        "weight": 0.1
      },
      {
        "bucket": "treasury_daily",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Treasury daily debt",
        "metrics": 3,
        "score": 67.9553083651641,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Watch",
        "weight": 0.1
      },
      {
        "bucket": "world_bank",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Global comparables",
        "metrics": 4,
        "score": 65.43652243024123,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Watch",
        "weight": 0.04
      },
      {
        "bucket": "fiscal",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Fiscal solvency",
        "metrics": 4,
        "score": 64.48029914517166,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.22
      },
      {
        "bucket": "private_leverage",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Private leverage",
        "metrics": 4,
        "score": 57.09890950322818,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.12
      },
      {
        "bucket": "market_prices",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Massive market prices",
        "metrics": 9,
        "score": 54.10120528542566,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.04
      },
      {
        "bucket": "rates_market",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Rates and market stress",
        "metrics": 7,
        "score": 49.113844981934264,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.18
      },
      {
        "bucket": "liquidity",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "Liquidity plumbing",
        "metrics": 4,
        "score": 48.161452213989335,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.1
      },
      {
        "bucket": "global_credit",
        "included_in_overall": true,
        "label": "BIS global credit",
        "metrics": 3,
        "score": 29.072774402022088,
        "score_role": "current_stress",
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.1
      }
    ],
    "current_stress": 54.642766284241716,
    "excluded_buckets": [
      "cbo_projection"
    ],
    "methodology": "Current stress score excludes structural long-term CBO projections.",
    "status": "Elevated",
    "structural": [
      {
        "bucket": "cbo_projection",
        "label": "CBO projections",
        "metrics": 4,
        "note": "Long-term structural projection excluded from current stress score.",
        "score": 85.89828165107457,
        "status": "Stress"
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-13",
      "max_risk": 80.41695252971347,
      "metrics": 9,
      "source": "Massive Market Data"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-14",
      "max_risk": 74.24371187943021,
      "metrics": 5,
      "source": "FRED/Fed"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-14",
      "max_risk": 67.48002160466673,
      "metrics": 4,
      "source": "FRED/Treasury"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-14",
      "max_risk": 76.56763372822563,
      "metrics": 4,
      "source": "FRED"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2056-09-30",
      "max_risk": 90.74685714285714,
      "metrics": 4,
      "source": "CBO Open Data"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2025-12-31",
      "max_risk": 82.22274169433395,
      "metrics": 4,
      "source": "World Bank"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-13",
      "max_risk": 76.1173568978966,
      "metrics": 3,
      "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2025-12-31",
      "max_risk": 55.23113917922602,
      "metrics": 3,
      "source": "BIS Data Portal"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-13",
      "max_risk": 36.29489591126317,
      "metrics": 2,
      "source": "FRED/ICE BofA"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-03",
      "max_risk": 37.89789647261286,
      "metrics": 1,
      "source": "FRED/Chicago Fed"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-01-01",
      "max_risk": 68.08957520083872,
      "metrics": 1,
      "source": "FRED/BEA"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-07-03",
      "max_risk": 39.09842203319843,
      "metrics": 1,
      "source": "FRED/St. Louis Fed"
    },
    {
      "latest_date": "2026-01-01",
      "max_risk": 32.15136673881235,
      "metrics": 1,
      "source": "FRED/Fed Z.1"
    }
  ],
  "thresholds": {
    "stress": 80,
    "watch": 65
  },
  "top_signals": [
    {
      "bucket": "world_bank",
      "current": 20.2909241993276,
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "family": "Global comparables",
      "name": "Interest payments / revenue",
      "rationale": "Annual cross-country comparable indicator.",
      "risk_score": 82.22274169433395,
      "series_id": "GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS",
      "signed_z": 2.148182779622263,
      "source": "World Bank",
      "unit": "% revenue"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "market_prices",
      "current": 81.79,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Massive market prices",
      "name": "iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "rationale": "Short Treasury proxy used in duration stress ratios. 30d return -0.57% if available.",
      "risk_score": 80.41695252971347,
      "series_id": "SHY",
      "signed_z": 2.0277968353142315,
      "source": "Massive Market Data",
      "unit": "USD"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "fiscal",
      "current": 98.7105,
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "family": "Fiscal solvency",
      "name": "Federal debt held by the public / GDP",
      "rationale": "Market-facing federal debt burden.",
      "risk_score": 76.56763372822563,
      "series_id": "FYGFGDQ188S",
      "signed_z": 1.7711755818817083,
      "source": "FRED",
      "unit": "% GDP"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "treasury_daily",
      "current": 39417.90546906421,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Treasury daily debt",
      "name": "Total public debt outstanding",
      "rationale": "Daily Treasury debt stock.",
      "risk_score": 76.1173568978966,
      "series_id": "Total public debt outstanding",
      "signed_z": 1.7411571265264403,
      "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
      "unit": "USD bn"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "private_leverage",
      "current": 1.34,
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "family": "Private leverage",
      "name": "Business loan delinquency rate",
      "rationale": "Business loan stress can migrate into banks and employment.",
      "risk_score": 74.24371187943021,
      "series_id": "DRBLACBS",
      "signed_z": 1.6162474586286804,
      "source": "FRED/Fed",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "treasury_daily",
      "current": 80.4400184909039,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Treasury daily debt",
      "name": "Debt held by the public share",
      "rationale": "Market-facing share of Treasury debt.",
      "risk_score": 73.52206257835759,
      "series_id": "Debt held by the public share",
      "signed_z": 1.5681375052238393,
      "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "market_prices",
      "current": 83.97,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Massive market prices",
      "name": "iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "rationale": "Long-duration Treasury proxy; drawdowns flag rate stress. 30d return -2.06% if available.",
      "risk_score": 71.60809637253978,
      "series_id": "TLT",
      "signed_z": 1.4405397581693182,
      "source": "Massive Market Data",
      "unit": "USD"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "market_prices",
      "current": 106.96,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Massive market prices",
      "name": "iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF",
      "rationale": "Investment-grade credit price proxy. 30d return -2.11% if available.",
      "risk_score": 71.01672502680691,
      "series_id": "LQD",
      "signed_z": 1.4011150017871277,
      "source": "Massive Market Data",
      "unit": "USD"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "fiscal",
      "current": 122.59387,
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "family": "Fiscal solvency",
      "name": "Federal debt, total public debt / GDP",
      "rationale": "Debt stock relative to economic base.",
      "risk_score": 70.46688535147425,
      "series_id": "GFDEGDQ188S",
      "signed_z": 1.3644590234316158,
      "source": "FRED",
      "unit": "% GDP"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "market_prices",
      "current": 1.0266536251375473,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Massive market prices",
      "name": "Long Treasury versus short Treasury price ratio",
      "rationale": "Derived market ratio from Massive daily adjusted closes.",
      "risk_score": 69.11599544981243,
      "series_id": "TLT/SHY",
      "signed_z": 1.2743996966541615,
      "source": "Massive Market Data",
      "unit": "ratio"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "fiscal",
      "current": 1218.938,
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "family": "Fiscal solvency",
      "name": "Federal government interest payments",
      "rationale": "Interest expense is the fiscal transmission channel.",
      "risk_score": 68.08957520083872,
      "series_id": "A091RC1Q027SBEA",
      "signed_z": 1.2059716800559146,
      "source": "FRED/BEA",
      "unit": "USD bn SAAR"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "rates_market",
      "current": 5.1,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Rates and market stress",
      "name": "30Y Treasury yield",
      "rationale": "Long-duration credibility and inflation compensation signal.",
      "risk_score": 67.48002160466673,
      "series_id": "DGS30",
      "signed_z": 1.165334773644449,
      "source": "FRED/Treasury",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "liquidity",
      "current": 0.278,
      "date": "2026-07-14",
      "family": "Liquidity plumbing",
      "name": "Overnight reverse repo facility",
      "rationale": "Shrinking RRP reduces an important liquidity buffer.",
      "risk_score": 66.98829470364733,
      "series_id": "RRPONTSYD",
      "signed_z": 1.132552980243155,
      "source": "FRED/Fed",
      "unit": "USD bn"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "rates_market",
      "current": 4.62,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Rates and market stress",
      "name": "10Y Treasury yield",
      "rationale": "Benchmark long-rate for sovereign funding cost.",
      "risk_score": 64.65860220046383,
      "series_id": "DGS10",
      "signed_z": 0.9772401466975883,
      "source": "FRED/Treasury",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "world_bank",
      "current": 115.768352618316,
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "family": "Global comparables",
      "name": "Central government debt, total / GDP",
      "rationale": "Annual cross-country comparable indicator.",
      "risk_score": 62.9668620777287,
      "series_id": "GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS",
      "signed_z": 0.8644574718485798,
      "source": "World Bank",
      "unit": "% GDP"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "private_leverage",
      "current": 11.164138,
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "family": "Private leverage",
      "name": "Household debt service payments / disposable income",
      "rationale": "Household debt service can transmit rate stress to demand.",
      "risk_score": 62.248993821083616,
      "series_id": "TDSP",
      "signed_z": 0.816599588072241,
      "source": "FRED/Fed",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "liquidity",
      "current": 3098911.0,
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "family": "Liquidity plumbing",
      "name": "Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks",
      "rationale": "Falling reserves can tighten money-market plumbing.",
      "risk_score": 61.0283974415026,
      "series_id": "WRESBAL",
      "signed_z": 0.7352264961001733,
      "source": "FRED/Fed",
      "unit": "USD mn"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "private_leverage",
      "current": 2.92,
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "family": "Private leverage",
      "name": "Credit card delinquency rate",
      "rationale": "Consumer credit deterioration is an early fragility signal.",
      "risk_score": 59.107805033854596,
      "series_id": "DRCCLACBS",
      "signed_z": 0.6071870022569731,
      "source": "FRED/Fed",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "rates_market",
      "current": 4.26,
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "family": "Rates and market stress",
      "name": "2Y Treasury yield",
      "rationale": "Higher front-end rates raise near-term refinancing cost.",
      "risk_score": 57.720430079416175,
      "series_id": "DGS2",
      "signed_z": 0.5146953386277451,
      "source": "FRED/Treasury",
      "unit": "%"
    },
    {
      "bucket": "global_credit",
      "current": 8.0,
      "date": "2025-12-31",
      "family": "BIS global credit",
      "name": "Household debt service ratio",
      "rationale": "BIS private-sector leverage or debt-service metric.",
      "risk_score": 55.23113917922602,
      "series_id": "BIS Household debt service ratio",
      "signed_z": 0.3487426119484012,
      "source": "BIS Data Portal",
      "unit": "%"
    }
  ]
}